ANALYSIS: Tambuwal’s silence places Sokoto PDP governorship aspirants on edge

A number of politicians in Sokoto State have indicated curiosity to succeed Governor Aminu Tambuwal beneath the Peoples Democratic Occasion (PDP) however not one of the aspirants is comfy because the governor has not indicated his desire.

The highest six aspirants embrace loyalists of the governor, a famend occasion loyalist and others banking on their godfather’s standing within the state and the occasion.

Not like in Kano and Kaduna states the place Governors Abdullahi Ganduje and Nasir El Rufai have revealed their most well-liked candidates and requested different governorship aspirants loyal to the governors to contest for different elective workplaces, Mr Tambuwal has not revealed his desire.

Whereas some supporters of the governor like Sani Dahiru stated Mr Tambuwal is being a “true democrat” that would supply a stage enjoying floor for all aspirants, political pundits stated the governor is making use of delay as techniques.

The candidates

The deputy governor, Manir Dan Iya, is the main aspirant within the PDP. The son of the district head of Kware has been loyal to Mr Tambuwal although the governor was not initially his godfather.

The function Mr Dan Iya performed in standing in for Mr Tambuwal when he went to contest for the presidency in 2019 endeared him to the governor. He was made the deputy governor and allowed to carry his place because the commissioner for native authorities and chieftaincy affairs from (2015 to 2022). He’s from the central zone.

Sagir Bafarawa, the fast former atmosphere commissioner, is the son of the previous governor, Attahiru Bafarawa. He’s believed to be banking on his father’s “legacy” and political standing within the state.

He misplaced the Home of Representatives election at Isa/Sabon Birni federal constituency in 2019 however is now gunning for the highest publish within the state largely as a result of the zone he comes from (Sokoto East) believes it’s its flip to supply the governor.

Mr Bafarawa can be banking on the truth that his father is without doubt one of the governor’s godfathers.

His younger age and inexperience might rely towards him however he has an intensive community of younger supporters from his closeness to youth organisations and participation in greater establishment politics.

Bello Aliyu (Goronyo), who’s the present chairman of the PDP within the state, stunned stakeholders when he joined the competition. Mr Goronyo, who can be from the japanese a part of the state, was a commissioner earlier than Mr Tambuwal “requested him to go and maintain” the occasion, due to what his supporters stated was “his skill” to clear the mess within the occasion. He’s little question one among Mr Tambuwal’s core loyalists along with his supporters even saying he was ordered by the governor to purchase the nomination kind after nearly all the opposite aspirants had purchased theirs.

He might not have a political construction like Messrs Dan Iya and Bafarawa to achieve all of the delegates however the truth that he nonetheless leads the occasion (although there’s an performing chairman) counts in his favour.

Mukhtar Shagari, a nephew of the late former President Shehu Shagari, is named a one-man military in Sokoto politics as a result of he doesn’t observe any godfather. He has been within the PDP since 1999 when he was a minister beneath the Obasanjo administration. He was, for eight years, deputy governor to Aliyu Wamakko, however didn’t decamp to APC with Mr Wamakko in 2014. He has contested serially for governor since and stays the face of the occasion’s outdated guard within the state.

Primarily based on training, capability and expertise, Mr Shagari stands tall among the many aspirants. However there’s that doubt of whether or not he will likely be loyal to Mr Tambuwal, who’s even thought-about a political junior to Mr Shagari by some residents. His type of ‘progressive’ politics of not doling out cash is taken into account a shortcoming amongst politicians however his followers like Almustapha Wadata imagine he’s the kind of politician the state wants. One other concern is that he’s from the southern zone, similar as Mr Tambuwal.

Saidu Umar, the fast former Secretary to the State Authorities (SSG), is one other loyalist of the governor operating for the highest publish. He’s a reserved individual and is seen because the mental financial institution of the Tambuwal administration. He’s thought-about by many because the aspirant of the metropolitan areas particularly as a result of not one of the three governors from 1999 so far have been from metropolitan areas. He was a commissioner earlier than his appointment as SSG.

Mr Umar can be seen as a bridge between profession politicians, public servants, and spiritual students. His conventional title of Malam Ubadoman Sokoto, given to him by the Sultanate, is an affidavit to his endearment to the elites. Nonetheless, his lack of political constructions within the different native areas is a problem.

The problems

Observers of the state’s politics stated it will be laborious for the governor to declare his most well-liked candidate as a result of he has the whole lot to lose by doing so, being a presidential aspirant himself.

As it’s now, Mr Dan Iya, his deputy, has been one of many frontline campaigners for Mr Tambuwal in his presidential bid. Other than spending cash for his personal marketing campaign, Mr Dan Iya has been reaching out to delegates in different states, particularly in Kebbi, Zamfara and Katsina, to talk for his principal.

Like him, Messrs Goronyo and Bature are additionally utilizing their positions (as PDP state chairman and Nationwide Organising Secretary respectively) to woo delegates for Mr Tambuwal.

Mr Shagari, in keeping with his supporter Mr Wadata, postponed his declaration for the governor’s seat and adopted Mr Tambuwal to Jigawa State for session, saying he would battle for his governor earlier than he focuses on his personal marketing campaign.

On this respect, he’s seen in the identical mild because the senior Bafarawa (former governor) who’s seen as one of many financers of the Tambuwal marketing campaign.

Mr Bafarawa, a businessman, is alleged to be utilizing his wealth to woo delegates, particularly from the South-south states the place he has enterprise and political associates in his Democratic Progressive Occasion (DPP) days.

Observers imagine it’s laborious for the governor to throw his weight behind any of the aspirants as a result of that may unsettle the others and dampen their assist for him.

Zoning

One other concern is of competition for the Sokoto governorship race is zoning.

Mr Tambuwal is alleged to be in confusion over the unofficial zoning settlement between the three senatorial zones that make up the state.

In 1999, Mr Bafarawa, from the japanese zone, received the seat beneath the defunct All Peoples Occasion, (APP) and was governor for eight years. He was adopted by Aliyu Wamakko from the central zone who was additionally in energy for eight years. The incumbent Mr Tambuwal from the southern a part of the state is about to conclude his second time period in workplace.

Three of the aspirants, Messrs Dan Iya, Bature and Umar, are from the central zone whereas Mr Shagari is from the southern zone alongside two different aspirants, Junior Bafarawa and Mr Goronyo.

If the previous is any information, these from the east can have a go on the slot whereas a deputy will likely be picked from both the central or southern zones.

The japanese and central zones have eight native authorities areas every whereas the south has seven.

Already, the southern zone, the place Mr Tambuwal comes from, has been faraway from the competition, although unofficially. That’s the reason Abdulsamad Dasuki, the fast former finance commissioner, an in depth pal of the governor and son of former Sultan Ibrahim Dasuki, dropped the governorship kind he had purchased to choose the Home of Representatives kind.

It’s understood that zoning is without doubt one of the causes Mr Tambuwal is but to make up his thoughts on his most well-liked aspirant.

One more reason might be the APC issue. It’s attainable Mr Tambuwal will wait to see the place the APC, which is enmeshed in disaster within the state, will decide its candidate from earlier than he declares his most well-liked alternative.

If Mr Wamakko, who’s the de facto chief of the APC in Sokoto, decides to go for a former deputy to Mr Tambuwal, Ahmad Aliyu, who’s from the metropolitan areas, the PDP might haven’t any choice however to additionally decide from the central zone to neutralise Mr Wamakko and his lieutenants.

And if the APC decides to area Faruk Malami from Mr Tambuwal’s zone (south), the governor might have to present the deputy seat to his zone for worry of Mr Wamakko’s affect.